The most recent numbers for the Orange County real estate market is for the month of March. Lets take a look at them now.

Lets take a look at numbers for March on homes up to 600k.

For sale is down, but only 0.3% sold is up 32.2% and pended is up 46.6% (pended is all property that is in the final stages of closing in the current month) The median price is $425,000 which is $25,000 higher then February and the highest it has been in the last 5 months. Days on market is at 93. Sellers are getting 91% of there original list price, and 97% of there current list price. Months of inventory is at 4.8 February had 6.3 months of inventory. This tells me the market is beginning to pick up for the spring months.

A neutral or balanced market is where the months of inventory is 5.5 to 6.4 months.

A buyer’s market exists when the months of inventory is equal to or greater than 6.5 months. With a buyer’s market there is numerous properties for sale and the sellers are more flexible with their price or the offer they will accept. Or, supply exceeds the demand. Basically, the buyer is in the driver’s seat.

A seller’s market exists when the months of inventory is equal to or less than 5.4 months. With a seller’s market there are fewer properties for sale and the sellers are less flexible with their price or the offer they will accept. Or, demand exceeds the supply. Basically, the seller is in the driver’s seat.

Keep in mind that the above statements are a general rule and does not always hold true. I believe the city the property is located in, exact location with in the city, condition of the house, days on market, and the type of sale will dictate who is in the driver’s seat and how a buyer should proceed with an offer.

Keep in mind that these numbers are for all of Orange County.

For sale is up 5.3% sold is down 26.8% month over month. Now sold means that the property could have been in escrow for 30-90 days or longer and  just so happen to sell in January. The more accurate stat to look at is Pended, because this is property that went into escrow in the month of January. Pended is up 30.9%. The median price sits at $350,000, the same as December. Days on market is at 88. Sellers are getting about 93% of there original list price.

As far as values, this segment of the market is holding pretty steady.

Bottom line: If you find a house that you love in a neighborhood you want, jump on it. Even though reports are saying prices are going to be coming down a little bit more, interest rates are on the rise. A 1% increase in interest rates means a 10% drop in purchasing power.

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Buy now or wait? Regardless of if you buy now or 6 months to 1 year from now, your investment needs to be long term, 5 to 10 years. The danger of waiting, is higher interest rates, meaning higher cost of owning the property. A 1% increase in rates decreases your purchasing power by 10%! Look at the graph below to further prove my point.

My advice. If you find a property you like in a neighborhood you like, jump on it. Your still buying a home in one of the best times in history.

I wish everyone the best of luck and I’m always available to answer any questions you have.

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For sale is down 14.3% sold is up 3.8% and pended is down 1.2% however, that is only 5 properties less then last month. The median is $720,000, no change over last month. Days on market is at 94. Sellers are getting 92% of there original list price. Months of inventory is one of the lowest going back 15 months.

Although december is typically a slow month the number of properties that went into escrow (Pended) were only down by 5 properties. I still see this segment of the market as relatively strong.

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago			Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
	Dec. 10	Nov. 10	% Change	Dec. 10	Dec. 09	% Change	Oct. 10 to Dec. 10	Oct. 09 to Dec. 09	% Change
For Sale	1882	2197	-14.3%	1882	1543	22%	2162	1672	29.3%
Sold	387	373	3.8%	387	474	-18.4%	379	465	-18.4%
Pended	412	417	-1.2%	412	375	9.9%	414	446	-7.2%

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For sale is down 5.1% sold is up 19.8% month over month. Now sold means that the property could have been in escrow for 30-90 days or longer and  just so happen to sell in November. The more accurate stat to look at is Pended, because this is property that went into escrow in the month of December. Pended is up 4.4%. The median price sits at $350,000, $10,000 lower then last month, however that is the average dating back 15 months. Days on market is at 82 which is 1 days less then last month. Sellers are getting about 94% of there original list price.

Although prices are coming down just a bit, interest rates are going up slightly so it pretty much balances itself out. Also keep in mind that this is all of Orange County.

Bottom line: If you find a house that you love in a desirable area, jump on it. Especially in this price range, where your dealing with a lot of properties that either have multiple offers or cash from investors. As a buyer It can be frustrating and discouraging. Be patient, the home your looking for is out there, it just may take a little more time they you would like.

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago			Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
	Dec. 10	Nov. 10	% Change	Dec. 10	Dec. 09	% Change	Oct. 10 to Dec. 10	Oct. 09 to Dec. 09	% Change
For Sale	6502	6855	-5.1%	6502	3848	69%	6778	3896	74%
Sold	1671	1395	19.8%	1671	1709	-2.2%	1543	1776	-13.1%
Pended	1805	1729	4.4%	1805	1654	9.1%	1746	1861	-6.2%

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Two big problems banks face when taking a home in a foreclosure or short sale are, the condition of the home after it’s occupants vacate, and getting the occupants to leave in a timely manner after the home sells. By giving cash for keys the homeowners are more likely to vacate in a timely manor and leave the property in better condition. By offering this incentive it encourages homeowners to do a short sale which ends up benefiting the bank and well as the homeowner.

Let’s take a look at the affect vacant property has on surrounding homes.

Vacant Foreclosures have deferred maintenance which makes them readily noticeable. That leads to a whole plethora of challenges for the neighbors. Pests move in, and in many cases, so does crime.

Studies have shown that just one vacant Foreclosure in a neighborhood can cost the other homes 1% in value. In a neighborhood of fifty homes worth $250,000, each innocent homeowner looses $2,500. If you multiple that by fifty, the neighborhood lost $125,000 in net worth.

According to http://www.responsiblelending.org

A California home that neighbors a Foreclosure has lost an average of $51,174! Don’t worry were not the worst, our neighbors Nevada are at $54,676.

One way to prevent all of these vacant Foreclosures is by doing a Short Sale.

Distressed properties sell at discounted values: Foreclosures at 65% of full value and Short Sales at 85% of full value. Typically with a Short Sale the home owners stay in there house until it sells. Doing 2 things, keeping a vacant home out of the neighborhood and sell for 20% more money then a Foreclosure. Thus not affecting your neighbors and community quite as much. Also with a Short Sale, if it’s considered your primary residence you can be eligible for a program called cash for keys. Which is between $2,500 and $3,000 dollars. Don’t forget the credit consequences by doing a Foreclosure. With a Foreclosure your credit will suffer 200-300 points vs a Short Sale your credit will suffer 80 to 100 points.

Before you decide to do a Short Sale or Foreclosure make sure you talk to your accountant or a lawyer. Also make sure who ever helps you with a Short Sale is either a reputable person or company. There are a lot of companies and individuals trying to take advantage of home owners.

I wish everyone the best of luck.

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For sale is down 8.8% sold is down 5.8% and pended is up 7.3%. Now sold means that the property could have been in escrow for 30-90 days or longer and  just so happen to sell in November. The more accurate stat to look at is Pended, because this is property about to close this month.The median is $720,000, 10,000 dollars higher then last month. Days on market is at 82. Sellers are getting 94% of there original list price.

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago			Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
	Nov. 10	Oct. 10	% Change	Nov. 10	Nov. 09	% Change	Sep. 10 to Nov. 10	Sep. 09 to Nov. 09	% Change
For Sale	2390	2621	-8.8%	2390	1889	26.5%	2608	1955	33.4%
Sold	372	395	-5.8%	372	452	-17.7%	405	486	-16.8%
Pended	497	463	7.3%	497	467	6.4%	472	524	-10%

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• High-end homesellers cut prices sharply (lansner.ocregister.com)

For sale is down 1.8% sold is down 13.4% month over month. Now sold means that the property could have been in escrow for 30-90 days or longer and  just so happen to sell in November. The more accurate stat to look at is Pended, because this is property about to close this month. Pended is up 6.9%. The median price sits at $370,000, 13,000 dollars higher then last month. There is only one month where that was higher going back 15 months. Days on market is at 83 which is 4 days more then last month and the highest going back 15 months. Sellers are getting about 94% of there original list price , the same as last month.

Although the winter months are statistically bad months for real estate activity we are still seeing an up tick in the median price and pended property.

The decline in properties for sale makes sense as usually during the holidays people have family coming into town (espesially in California) and don’t want to worry about keeping the house in show condition and also the possibility needing to clear your guests out of the house should a buyer want to see it.

For sellers this might be a good time to list, as inventory will most likely be the lowest of the year and the buyers looking to buy now are going to be the serious ones.

December should be an interesting month.

Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago			Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago
	Nov. 10	Oct. 10	% Change	Nov. 10	Nov. 09	% Change	Sep. 10 to Nov. 10	Sep. 09 to Nov. 09	% Change
For Sale	6547	6666	-1.8%	6547	3756	74.3%	6646	3599	84.7%
Sold	1312	1515	-13.4%	1312	1619	-19%	1478	1774	-16.7%
Pended	1959	1833	6.9%	1959	1815	7.9%	1841	2015	-8.6%

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Image via Wikipedia

There is a relatively new, little known mortgage program called. Purchase Reverse Mortgage.

Most people have heard of  the Reverse Mortgage which allows someone over 62  years old to stay in there home without a mortgage payment. Upon death of the longest living borrower, permanent move out, or sale of the home, the borrowed money plus interest will need to be satisfied. Because there are no payments, lenders don’t look at credit, income, or assets. The money they get is based on their age and the value of there current residence.

The Purchase Reverse Program is very much the same. The only difference is you can actually purchase a home, without verifying income, assets, or credit.  Depending on the age and the purchase price of the home a lender can lend up to 50% of the purchase price. Same with the Reverse Mortgage, after death or permanent move out the mortgage and interest will be do.

HUD will also guarantee that the property will never be less then what it was originally purchased for. This is great for the heir’s as they wont suddenly acquire a property that is up side down.

Now Seniors can get out of a property that no longer fits their needs and move on to the next stage of their lives WITHOUT needing to liquidate their retirement accounts and be victimized by the equity they have lost in their current home.

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